这次中国放过很好机会, 让给西方生, 后果来了!

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking ... trarian-investor-se es-economic-crash-in-china;_ylt=AjCBN18A3bk61KWRd0cpNZK...

反向投资者认为在中国经济崩溃
由大卫巴尔沃萨
星期五，2010年1月8日

由纽约时报

詹姆斯S遮兴建预见的安然公司和其他高飞的公司倒闭，他们的故事都好得如此华尔街最大的财富之一。

现在虱先生，一个富有的对冲基金的投资者，正在努力破灭了最大的企业集团的神话：中国公司

中国作为世界上最投注，以帮助摆脱衰退的全球经济，虱先生警告说，中国的过度刺激经济走向崩溃的，而不是持续繁荣，大多数经济学家预测，。其澎湃的地产界，由投机资金大量涌入支撑，看起来像“迪拜倍1000 - 或者更糟糕，”他烦恼的。他甚至怀疑，北京烹饪的书籍，伪造，除其他外，其视觉冲击力超过百分之八的增长率。
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“泡沫最好确定信贷过度，而不是估值的暴行，他说：”在最近出现在CNBC。 “还有没有比在中国更大的信贷过剩。”他正计划在牛津大学演讲本月晚些时候以宣扬他的观点。

作为美国最杰出的空头 - 他豪赌的钱，公司的策略将失败 - 虱先生的叙事违背了当时的中国智慧。多数经济学家和政府都希望中国的增长势头今年将继续通过什么样的5860亿美元政府的刺激计划，从去年开始取消意味着出口和在中国消费者的消费，维持上扬。

不过，对中国投注并不容易。因为外国人从中国境内上市股票投资的限制，虱先生表示，他对其他办法，使他的赌注，包括重点建设和基础设施相关的公司寻求出售水泥，煤炭，钢铁和铁矿石。

虱先生，51岁的对冲基金Kynikos Associates公司，总部设在纽约，有美元的管理60亿美元，几乎是唯一的中国持怀疑态度。但他无疑是最突出和声乐。

对于所有纪录，他的先见之明，除了预测安然公司的消亡 - ，他还发现了泰科国际，波士顿餐饮连锁市场迫在眉睫的问题，最近，住房建筑商和世界上一些最大的银行 - 他的批评者说，他知道知之甚少或中国经济或没有，他的看跌呼吁应该被忽略。

“我觉得有趣的人谁也没有说明中国10年前，现在的中国专家说，”罗杰斯，谁共同创立与索罗斯量子基金，现在居住在新加坡。 “中国是不是泡沫。”

同事们承认，虱先生开始学习认真去年夏天中国唯一的经济和发出的电子邮件寻求专家意见。

但他标记随着熊，谁看到越来越多的证据表明中国的经济刺激计划和积极的银行贷款是制造人为的需求提高的不良贷款浪潮的风险。

“在中国，他仿佛看到了暴行，到第三和第四权力，他一直在这几十年来对倾斜，”吉姆说格兰特的老朋友和格兰特利率观察家，谁也对中国看跌编辑。 “他家就在市场并从中获利的暴行。那是他的股票和贸易。”

虱先生拒绝接受采访，理由是他对中国继续进行研究。但他已经蔓延认为中国奇迹是致盲的危险，该国正在产生太多的投资者。

“在中国，”他在11月与Politico.com采访时警告说：“在大量生产的商品和产品的危险性，他们将无法出售。”

去年12月，他出现在CNBC，讨论如何，他已开始采取空仓，希望从中国获利崩溃。

近几个月来，越来越多的分析师和一些中国官员也警告说，可能出现资产泡沫在中国。

国家的巨额经济刺激计划和银行贷款的记录，估计去年增加了一倍，从2008年，数十亿美元注入到经济，重燃增长。

但许多分析家说，钱，随着大量外资流入的“投机资本”已进入股票和房地产市场漏斗。

结果，他们说，价格已经飙升以及对建设热潮正在进行恢复是在2008年初 - 一虱先生和其他人所说的浪费和过度。

“这将是一个泡沫，说：”戈登湾张一书，他说：“中国即将崩溃”（兰登书屋），对于这样的警告，2001年崩溃。

朋友和同事们说，遮是舒适的人群对赌 - 即使人群包括巴菲特和威尔伯罗斯小，另外两个投资世界伟人喜欢。

反向按性质，虱先生研究公司，在毛孔公开文件被过滤线索，会计欺诈和欺骗性，然后决定是否股票被高估，为秋季的准备。他已有26在纽约和伦敦的公司的办公室工作人员，其他中国相关的信息搜索。

“他的记录令人印象深刻，说：”拜伦河维也纳，黑石副委员长咨询服务。 “他不只做晚上骗子。而且我对中国是乐观的。”

虱先生在密尔沃基长大，一个所生的干洗店连锁业主的三个儿子。在耶鲁，他是一个预先开关之前因为他作为市场运作的方式描述的热情关心学生的经济学杂志。

他的指导思想是发现了一本书叫做“反向投资的，”根据他生命帐户“在屋内聪明人”一书的记载安然的崛起和灭亡。

大学毕业后，他到华尔街，他在经纪公司的一系列的工作，在1985年前开始自己的公司出他后来所说的是与华尔街经纪人的方式促进股市的失望情绪。

在Kynikos Associates公司，他创造了关于股市下跌投注为重点的公司。他的理论是在总结了证词成立于2002年，他向众议院能源和商业委员会，安然事件之后。他的公司，他说，对于公司似乎夸大收益像安然，看来，都是一个有缺陷的业务计划的受害者，像许多互联网公司，或已从事“明目张胆的欺诈行为。”

这空头持有低方面的一些华尔街人士，以及主要大街，一直困扰他。

空头是加强市场销售的指责在2008年秋季起飞前，这一做法是暂时禁止。监管机构正试图决定是否限制的做法。

常先生遮短回应批评，通过指向的关键作用，他们在确定多年来安然，波士顿市场和其他“金融灾难”问题起到销售。

“他们往往都是穿白色帽子当谈到寻找和确定坏家伙，”他说。



Contrarian Investor Sees Economic Crash in China
by David Barboza
Friday, January 8, 2010

provided by The New York Times

James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.

Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.

As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession, Mr. Chanos is warning that China's hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like "Dubai times 1,000 -- or worse," he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.
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"Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses," he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. "And there's no bigger credit excess than in China." He is planning a speech later this month at the University of Oxford to drive home his point.

As America's pre-eminent short-seller -- he bets big money that companies' strategies will fail -- Mr. Chanos's narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China. Most economists and governments expect Chinese growth momentum to continue this year, buoyed by what remains of a $586 billion government stimulus program that began last year, meant to lift exports and consumption among Chinese consumers.

Still, betting against China will not be easy. Because foreigners are restricted from investing in stocks listed inside China, Mr. Chanos has said he is searching for other ways to make his bets, including focusing on construction- and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement, coal, steel and iron ore.

Mr. Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund, Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, is hardly the only skeptic on China. But he is certainly the most prominent and vocal.

For all his record of prescience -- in addition to predicting Enron's demise, he also spotted the looming problems of Tyco International, the Boston Market restaurant chain and, more recently, home builders and some of the world's biggest banks -- his detractors say that he knows little or nothing about China or its economy and that his bearish calls should be ignored.

"I find it interesting that people who couldn't spell China 10 years ago are now experts on China," said Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and now lives in Singapore. "China is not in a bubble."

Colleagues acknowledge that Mr. Chanos began studying China's economy in earnest only last summer and sent out e-mail messages seeking expert opinion.

But he is tagging along with the bears, who see mounting evidence that China's stimulus package and aggressive bank lending are creating artificial demand, raising the risk of a wave of nonperforming loans.

"In China, he seems to see the excesses, to the third and fourth power, that he's been tilting against all these decades," said Jim Grant, a longtime friend and the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, who is also bearish on China. "He homes in on the excesses of the markets and profits from them. That's been his stock and trade."

Mr. Chanos declined to be interviewed, citing his continuing research on China. But he has already been spreading the view that the China miracle is blinding investors to the risk that the country is producing far too much.

"The Chinese," he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, "are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell."

In December, he appeared on CNBC to discuss how he had already begun taking short positions, hoping to profit from a China collapse.

In recent months, a growing number of analysts, and some Chinese officials, have also warned that asset bubbles might emerge in China.

The nation's huge stimulus program and record bank lending, estimated to have doubled last year from 2008, pumped billions of dollars into the economy, reigniting growth.

But many analysts now say that money, along with huge foreign inflows of "speculative capital," has been funneled into the stock and real estate markets.

A result, they say, has been soaring prices and a resumption of the building boom that was under way in early 2008 -- one that Mr. Chanos and others have called wasteful and overdone.

"It's going to be a bust," said Gordon G. Chang, whose book, "The Coming Collapse of China" (Random House), warned in 2001 of such a crash.

Friends and colleagues say Mr. Chanos is comfortable betting against the crowd -- even if that crowd includes the likes of Warren E. Buffett and Wilbur L. Ross Jr., two other towering figures of the investment world.

A contrarian by nature, Mr. Chanos researches companies, pores over public filings to sift out clues to fraud and deceptive accounting, and then decides whether a stock is overvalued and ready for a fall. He has a staff of 26 in the firm's offices in New York and London, searching for other China-related information.

"His record is impressive," said Byron R. Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services. "He's no fly-by-night charlatan. And I'm bullish on China."

Mr. Chanos grew up in Milwaukee, one of three sons born to the owners of a chain of dry cleaners. At Yale, he was a pre-med student before switching to economics because of what he described as a passionate interest in the way markets operate.

His guiding philosophy was discovered in a book called "The Contrarian Investor," according to an account of his life in "The Smartest Guys in the Room," a book that chronicled Enron's rise and downfall.

After college, he went to Wall Street, where he worked at a series of brokerage houses before starting his own firm in 1985, out of what he later said was frustration with the way Wall Street brokers promoted stocks.

At Kynikos Associates, he created a firm focused on betting on falling stock prices. His theories are summed up in testimony he gave to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in 2002, after the Enron debacle. His firm, he said, looks for companies that appear to have overstated earnings, like Enron; were victims of a flawed business plan, like many Internet firms; or have been engaged in "outright fraud."

That short-sellers are held in low regard by some on Wall Street, as well as Main Street, has long troubled him.

Short-sellers were blamed for intensifying market sell-offs in the fall 2008, before the practice was temporarily banned. Regulators are now trying to decide whether to restrict the practice.

Mr. Chanos often responds to critics of short-selling by pointing to the critical role they played in identifying problems at Enron, Boston Market and other "financial disasters" over the years.

"They are often the ones wearing the white hats when it comes to looking for and identifying the bad guys," he has said.

过路者

屁乃人生之气

巴黎人间

放屁

卢浮宫

喝红酒  喝透啦晕

feiyu8898

看了半天 晕了 难道是我的中文退步了吗？？？？

T.Indy

这是语言翻译机直接翻出来 然后没经过人工改正就贴出来了

c Nul